Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints Match result — 05.07.2026

Teams Form Analysis

The Essendon Bombers have struggled in their recent outings, losing their last three matches, including a significant defeat against the St Kilda Saints where they scored only 50 points. Their form has been characterized by a lack of scoring power, averaging just 50 points in their last match. In contrast, the St Kilda Saints have shown stronger form, winning their last match convincingly with a score of 117, indicating a potent offense.

Historically, the Saints have had the upper hand in their recent encounters, winning four out of the last seven matches against the Bombers. This trend suggests a psychological advantage for St Kilda heading into this matchup.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In terms of statistics, the Bombers have averaged 361.4 disposals per game, while the Saints have a higher average of 385.4. This disparity in disposals reflects the Saints' ability to control the game. Additionally, the Saints have been more effective in scoring, averaging 13.1 goals per game compared to the Bombers' 10.2. The venue, Marvel Stadium, typically favors the home team, but given the current form of both teams, the Saints appear to have a significant edge.

Moreover, the Bombers' defensive struggles have been evident, allowing an average of 89.6 points against, which could be exploited by the Saints' high-scoring offense. The recent head-to-head results further reinforce the Saints' dominance, making them the favorites in this matchup.

Essendon Bombers — St Kilda Saints Prediction

• Exact Score: 50 – 117
• Q1: 10 – 30
• Q2: 15 – 35
• Q3: 10 – 25
• Q4: 15 – 27
• Total points: 167
• Winning margin: 67
• Disposals: 332 – 447
• Kicks: 184 – 244
• Handballs: 148 – 203
• Total Clearances: 33 – 34
• Marks: 82 – 127
• Tackles: 46 – 65
• Hitouts: 49 – 28
• Goal Assists: 6 – 12
• Free Kicks: 17 – 24

The tactical expectations for the Saints will likely involve maintaining possession and utilizing their superior disposal efficiency to create scoring opportunities. They may focus on quick ball movement to exploit the Bombers' defensive weaknesses, particularly in transition. The Bombers, on the other hand, will need to tighten their defense and find ways to score effectively to keep the game competitive.

3 Reasons Why St Kilda Saints Will Win

• Projected Score Edge. St Kilda Saints has the edge in projected scoreline: 117 vs 50.
• Strong Recent Form. Recent form supports St Kilda Saints's attack: 88.60 points per game, while Essendon Bombers allows 89.60 per game in the same sample.
• Head-to-Head Advantage. In recent head-to-head sample, St Kilda Saints leads with 4 wins against 1 losses.

Match Prediction

Date Match W Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Σ ±

05.07.2026 05:15 AFL Premiership

Essendon Bombers

St Kilda Saints

50 117

10 30

15 35

10 25

15 27

167

67

AFL Stats Forecast

Metric

Disposals 332 447

Kicks 184 244

Handballs 148 203

Total Clearances 33 34

Marks 82 127

Tackles 46 65

Hitouts 49 28

Goal Assists 6 12

Free Kicks 17 24