Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers Match result — 25.07.2026

Teams Form Analysis

The Hawthorn Hawks have shown strong form in their recent matches, winning 8 of their last 10 games. They have been particularly effective at home, scoring an average of 104.8 points per game while conceding only 79.0. In contrast, the Essendon Bombers have struggled on the road, winning only 2 of their last 10 games and averaging just 58.2 points scored while allowing 100.8 points against.

In their last encounter, the Hawks convincingly defeated the Bombers with a score of 145 to 83, showcasing their offensive strength and defensive resilience. This trend suggests that the Hawks will be favored in this matchup, especially given their home advantage.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

Statistically, the Hawks have a significant edge in disposals, averaging 388.6 per game compared to the Bombers' 357.9. They also excel in clearances (37.4 vs. 32.2) and tackles (59.8 vs. 49.9), indicating a more aggressive and effective style of play. The head-to-head record favors the Bombers slightly, with 4 wins out of 7 encounters, but recent form heavily favors the Hawks.

Home advantage plays a crucial role, as the Hawks have a strong winning percentage at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. The Bombers will need to overcome their recent away struggles to compete effectively.

Hawthorn Hawks — Essendon Bombers Prediction

• Exact Score: 145 – 83
• Q1: 35 – 20
• Q2: 40 – 25
• Q3: 35 – 20
• Q4: 35 – 18
• Total points: 228
• Winning margin: 62
• Disposals: 400 – 340
• Kicks: 230 – 180
• Handballs: 170 – 160
• Total Clearances: 40 – 30
• Marks: 100 – 80
• Tackles: 60 – 50
• Hitouts: 45 – 30
• Goal Assists: 15 – 10
• Free Kicks: 20 – 15

The Hawks are expected to maintain a high scoring trend throughout the match, capitalizing on their offensive capabilities while the Bombers will likely struggle to keep pace, especially in the second half.

3 Reasons Why Hawthorn Hawks Will Win

• Recent Form: The Hawks have won 8 of their last 10 matches, showcasing strong offensive and defensive capabilities.
• Home Advantage: Playing at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, the Hawks have a significant edge, historically performing well at home.
• Head-to-Head Record: Although the Bombers have a slight edge in overall matchups, the Hawks' recent victory over them suggests a shift in momentum.

Match Prediction

Date Match W Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Σ ±

25.07.2026 06:15 AFL Premiership

Hawthorn Hawks

Essendon Bombers

145 83

35 20

40 25

35 20

35 18

228

62

AFL Stats Forecast

Metric

Disposals 392 355

Kicks 228 201

Handballs 165 154

Total Clearances 38 32

Marks 100 92

Tackles 59 50

Hitouts 44 32

Goal Assists 11 7

Free Kicks 19 19