Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons Match result — 04.07.2026

Teams Form Analysis

The Hawthorn Hawks have shown a mixed form in their recent matches, winning 3 out of their last 10 games. Their most recent match ended in a loss against the Melbourne Demons, where they scored 90 points. In contrast, the Melbourne Demons have been in strong form, winning 7 of their last 10 games, including a convincing victory over the Hawks in their last encounter.

Historically, the Demons have dominated the head-to-head matchups, winning 7 out of the last 10 games against the Hawks, which adds to their confidence going into this match.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In terms of statistics, the Hawks average 384.8 disposals per game, while the Demons average 353.3. The scoring trends indicate that the Hawks have been able to score an average of 97.8 points per game at home, while the Demons have scored an average of 87.0 points away. The venue at UTAS Stadium may provide a slight home advantage for the Hawks, but their recent form suggests they will struggle against a well-performing Demons side.

Both teams have had a similar number of rest days leading up to this match, which means fatigue should not be a significant factor. However, the Demons' recent scoring consistency and their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities could prove decisive.

Hawthorn Hawks — Melbourne Demons Prediction

• Exact Score: 90 – 125
• Q1: 22 – 30
• Q2: 25 – 35
• Q3: 20 – 30
• Q4: 23 – 30
• Total points: 215
• Winning margin: 35
• Disposals: 345 – 349
• Kicks: 216 – 207
• Handballs: 129 – 142
• Total Clearances: 31 – 46
• Marks: 111 – 89
• Tackles: 44 – 64
• Hitouts: 42 – 36
• Goal Assists: 11 – 15
• Free Kicks: 20 – 23

The tactical expectations for the Demons will likely focus on maintaining their scoring momentum and utilizing their clearance advantage to control the midfield. The Hawks will need to tighten their defense and improve their clearance efficiency to compete effectively.

3 Reasons Why Melbourne Demons Will Win

• Recent Form: The Demons have won 7 of their last 10 matches, showcasing their strong form compared to the Hawks' 3 wins.
• Head-to-Head Dominance: The Demons have won 7 out of the last 10 encounters against the Hawks, reinforcing their psychological edge.
• Scoring Consistency: The Demons have a higher average points per game and have consistently outscored the Hawks in recent matches.

Match Prediction

Date Match W Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Σ ±

04.07.2026 03:15 AFL Premiership

Hawthorn Hawks

Melbourne Demons

90 125

22 30

25 35

20 30

23 30

215

35

AFL Stats Forecast

Metric

Disposals 345 349

Kicks 216 207

Handballs 129 142

Total Clearances 31 46

Marks 111 89

Tackles 44 64

Hitouts 42 36

Goal Assists 11 15

Free Kicks 20 23