Melbourne Demons vs Richmond Tigers Match result — 12.07.2026

Teams Form Analysis

The Melbourne Demons have shown strong form recently, winning 4 out of their last 5 matches, including a significant victory against the Hawthorn Hawks with a score of 125 to 90. Their scoring average over the last 10 games stands at approximately 87 points per game, indicating a potent offense. In contrast, the Richmond Tigers have struggled, with only 1 win in their last 5 matches, including a heavy loss to the Sydney Swans, where they conceded 170 points while scoring just 56. This stark difference in form suggests a significant advantage for the Demons heading into this matchup.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In terms of head-to-head performance, the Melbourne Demons have dominated their recent encounters with the Richmond Tigers, winning all 5 of their last matches against them. The average goals scored by the Demons in these matchups is 104, while the Tigers have averaged only 70. Additionally, the Demons enjoy a home advantage at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, where they have consistently performed well. The Tigers' recent form, coupled with their defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in conceding high scores, further tilts the odds in favor of the Demons.

Melbourne Demons — Richmond Tigers Prediction

• Exact Score: 130 – 70
• Q1: 35 – 15
• Q2: 30 – 20
• Q3: 30 – 15
• Q4: 35 – 20
• Total points: 200
• Winning margin: 60
• Disposals: 370 – 330
• Kicks: 220 – 190
• Handballs: 150 – 140
• Total Clearances: 40 – 30
• Marks: 90 – 80
• Tackles: 60 – 50
• Hitouts: 45 – 25
• Goal Assists: 12 – 8
• Free Kicks: 20 – 15

Expect the Demons to leverage their strong midfield presence to dominate clearances and disposals, while the Tigers will need to tighten their defense to avoid another heavy defeat. The Demons' ability to score quickly and efficiently will be crucial in maintaining their lead throughout the match.

3 Reasons Why Melbourne Demons Will Win

• Projected Score Edge. Melbourne Demons has the edge in projected scoreline: 130 vs 70.
• Strong Recent Form. Recent form supports Melbourne Demons's attack: 87.00 points per game, while Richmond Tigers allows 107.60 per game in the same sample.
• Head-to-Head Advantage. In recent head-to-head sample, Melbourne Demons leads with 5 wins against 0 losses.

Match Prediction

Date Match W Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Σ ±

12.07.2026 05:15 AFL Premiership

Melbourne Demons

Richmond Tigers

130 70

35 15

30 20

30 15

35 20

200

60

AFL Stats Forecast

Metric

Disposals 370 330

Kicks 220 190

Handballs 150 140

Total Clearances 40 30

Marks 90 80

Tackles 60 50

Hitouts 45 25

Goal Assists 12 8

Free Kicks 20 15