Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Match result — 04.07.2026

Teams Form Analysis

The Richmond Tigers have struggled in their recent matches, losing 4 out of their last 5 games. Their most recent performance against the Carlton Blues ended in a narrow defeat, where they scored 72 points against Carlton's 74. This reflects a concerning trend for the Tigers, who have been unable to maintain consistent scoring, averaging only 65.6 points per game over their last 10 matches.

In contrast, the Carlton Blues have shown better form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. Their recent victory against Richmond highlights their ability to perform under pressure, averaging 87.8 points per game in their last 10 outings. This scoring consistency gives them a significant advantage heading into this matchup.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

Statistically, the Richmond Tigers have averaged 335.7 disposals per game, while the Carlton Blues have outperformed them with an average of 382.3 disposals. This disparity in disposals is crucial, as it indicates Carlton's ability to control the game flow. Additionally, Richmond's defensive struggles are evident, as they have allowed an average of 107.6 points against per game, compared to Carlton's 70.4 points against. The venue at the Melbourne Cricket Ground provides a neutral ground, but Richmond's recent home performances have not been convincing.

Head-to-head, Carlton has won 5 out of the last 9 encounters, with Richmond only managing 3 victories. This historical trend further supports Carlton's position as the stronger team in this matchup.

Richmond Tigers — Carlton Blues Prediction

• Exact Score: 70 – 78
• Q1: 18 – 20
• Q2: 15 – 18
• Q3: 18 – 20
• Q4: 19 – 20
• Total points: 148
• Winning margin: 8
• Disposals: 340 – 380
• Kicks: 180 – 220
• Handballs: 160 – 160
• Total Clearances: 30 – 35
• Marks: 70 – 100
• Tackles: 55 – 60
• Hitouts: 35 – 40
• Goal Assists: 5 – 8
• Free Kicks: 20 – 20

In terms of tactical expectations, Carlton is likely to focus on maintaining possession and utilizing their superior disposal efficiency to create scoring opportunities. Richmond will need to improve their defensive structure to limit Carlton's scoring chances, particularly in the midfield where Carlton excels. The match could hinge on Richmond's ability to adapt their game plan to counter Carlton's strengths.

3 Reasons Why Carlton Blues Will Win

• Recent Form: Carlton's recent form shows they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Richmond has lost 4 out of their last 5.
• Head-to-Head Advantage: Carlton has won 5 out of the last 9 encounters, indicating a psychological edge.
• Scoring Consistency: Carlton averages 87.8 points per game in their last 10 matches, while Richmond averages only 65.6 points.

Match Prediction

Date Match W Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Σ ±

04.07.2026 09:35 AFL Premiership

Richmond Tigers

Carlton Blues

70 78

18 20

15 18

18 20

19 20

148

8

AFL Stats Forecast

Metric

Disposals 340 380

Kicks 180 220

Handballs 160 160

Total Clearances 30 35

Marks 70 100

Tackles 55 60

Hitouts 35 40

Goal Assists 5 8

Free Kicks 20 20