Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks Match result — 19.07.2026

Teams Form Analysis

The Richmond Tigers have struggled in their recent matches, losing their last three games, including a significant defeat against the Hawthorn Hawks where they scored only 52 points. Their recent form shows a concerning trend, averaging just 52.4 points over their last five matches. In contrast, the Hawthorn Hawks have been in strong form, winning four of their last five games and averaging 104.8 points in the same period, indicating a potent attacking unit.

Head-to-head, the Hawks have dominated recent encounters, winning four of the last five matches against the Tigers, including a decisive victory in their last meeting. This historical context adds pressure on Richmond as they face a team that has consistently outperformed them.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

Richmond's defensive issues are evident, having conceded an average of 97.2 points per game over their last ten matches. Their inability to contain opposition scoring has been a critical factor in their recent losses. Conversely, Hawthorn's offensive capabilities have been impressive, with an average of 104.8 points scored in their last ten games. The Tigers will need to improve their defensive strategies significantly to compete effectively.

Playing at the Melbourne Cricket Ground gives Richmond a slight home advantage, but their recent performances suggest that this may not be enough to overcome the Hawks' current form. The Tigers will also need to manage their disposals better, as they have averaged 334.7 disposals per game, which is lower than Hawthorn's 388.6 average.

Richmond Tigers — Hawthorn Hawks Prediction

• Exact Score: 60 – 120
• Q1: 15 – 30
• Q2: 15 – 30
• Q3: 15 – 30
• Q4: 15 – 30
• Total points: 180
• Winning margin: 60
• Disposals: 330 – 420
• Kicks: 180 – 240
• Handballs: 150 – 180
• Total Clearances: 30 – 40
• Marks: 70 – 110
• Tackles: 50 – 70
• Hitouts: 25 – 35
• Goal Assists: 5 – 15
• Free Kicks: 12 – 20

Hawthorn's ability to score heavily, combined with Richmond's defensive struggles, suggests a tactical approach focused on maintaining possession and exploiting turnovers. The Hawks are likely to apply pressure early, aiming to establish a lead and control the game's tempo.

3 Reasons Why Hawthorn Hawks Will Win

• Recent Form: Hawthorn's recent form shows they have won four of their last five matches, while Richmond has lost three in a row, indicating a significant disparity in confidence and momentum.
• Head-to-Head Dominance: The Hawks have won four of the last five encounters against the Tigers, including a recent 70-point victory, showcasing their superiority in this matchup.
• Scoring Consistency: Hawthorn's scoring average of 104.8 points per game over the last ten matches far exceeds Richmond's average of 52.4 points, highlighting their offensive strength and Richmond's defensive vulnerabilities.

Match Prediction

Date Match W Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Σ ±

19.07.2026 03:10 AFL Premiership

Richmond Tigers

Hawthorn Hawks

60 120

15 30

15 30

15 30

15 30

180

60

AFL Stats Forecast

Metric

Disposals 330 420

Kicks 180 240

Handballs 150 180

Total Clearances 30 40

Marks 70 110

Tackles 50 70

Hitouts 25 35

Goal Assists 5 15

Free Kicks 12 20