Brisbane aimed for a home preliminary final spot and a chance at a fourth consecutive grand final after securing third place, setting up a qualifying match against a struggling Sydney team. However, the two-time reigning champions fell short, unable to keep pace with the energized Swans in a disappointing defeat.
Last year, the Lions found themselves in a similar predicament, suffering a heavy loss to the Cats before recovering in a semi-final against the rising Suns. Under the guidance of Coach Chris Fagan, they managed to navigate a challenging path through four finals to claim back-to-back premierships. To achieve a three-peat, they must replicate this resilience once more.
Meanwhile, Adelaide overcame a painful recent past by defeating the Western Bulldogs, marking their first finals win in nine years. With the burden of previous failures lifted, the Crows can now compete without pressure. Having shaken off the weight of expectations tied to a home final, Matthew Nicks’ team is set to challenge the defending champions, eyeing potential games at the MCG, starting with a match against Hawthorn next week.
Where the game will be won – and lost
Historically, underestimating Brisbane has proven unwise. However, this time there are signs that things may be different. The Lions exhibited signs of weariness against Sydney, a team that has reached the finals for eight consecutive years. They have struggled defensively, allowing heavy scores, including nine games with over 100 points against them this season, and conceding more than 20 goals in three of their last 14 matches. The 141 points surrendered against the Swans marked the most the Lions have given up in 21 finals under Fagan, although they can point to a precedent: all 12 teams to lose a final by 50 or more points this century have rebounded to win the following week.
This season, the Lions’ issues frequently stem from their inability to defend against their turnovers, ranking among the bottom four in points conceded as a result. With Lachie Neale, the league’s top-ranked centre clearance player, leading the midfield, they typically have an advantage in possession. Nonetheless, even this star-studded group faltered against the Swans, where they were outscored 39-6 from centre ball-ups. Key players like Will Ashcroft, Hugh McCluggage, and Neale himself fell short of expectations and will be motivated to improve.
Adelaide showcased their grit in their first finals victory against the Bulldogs, continuing a promising trend since their mid-season break. The Crows have won 10 of their last 13 games, including victories over top-six teams such as the Cats and Swans, with only one loss to the Dockers among the remaining teams. Earlier in the season, Nicks’ squad faced challenges against genuine contenders, suffering defeats against the Cats, Dockers, and Hawks, while also experiencing their heaviest loss of the year against the Lions.
Recent history has not favored the Crows against the Lions, with just two wins in 10 encounters since 2018, and they have lost all five meetings at the Gabba during that span. However, this is their first finals matchup in 23 years, and Adelaide now boasts a defense designed for high-pressure games, ranking second for points conceded this year. The challenge remains turning that solid defense into consistent offensive play, as the Crows rank among the bottom four for chains from defensive-50 to inside-50 – a vulnerability the Lions could exploit, as demonstrated by the Swans.
Game-changers
Lachie Neale: The dual Brownlow medallist has navigated personal challenges and speculation regarding his future to deliver another strong season, at least until his performance dipped in Brisbane’s defeat to Sydney. Neale recorded only 18 disposals and two clearances in the qualifying final – his lowest stoppage tally in the past year. He will be eager to regain his form and lead the Lions’ comeback. A glance back at the last encounter with the Crows highlights his potential impact, as he dominated with 42 disposals in a decisive win in round seven. Even if Neale’s future with the Lions is uncertain, a stellar performance in the coming weeks could pave the way for a successful conclusion to his time at the club.
Izak Rankine: The Adelaide star has found his rhythm as he seeks redemption for previous missteps, including a homophobic slur that led to a ban during last year’s finals. Over the past four matches, Rankine has averaged 36 disposals, 10 clearances, and two goals, taking on a more significant role in the midfield, including in his first finals appearance against the Bulldogs. The 26-year-old made a crucial difference as the Crows held off the Dogs’ late surge, sealing the victory with a goal from a challenging angle. As one of the Crows’ primary goal-scoring threats and arguably the most in-form midfielder in the league, Rankine can expect to engage with the Lions’ Josh Dunkley in the upcoming semi-final.
Early prediction
Brisbane’s lackluster performance in the qualifying final has made it difficult to fully trust them again. However, their past achievements suggest they are capable of bouncing back against an Adelaide team that has often been found wanting against the league’s elite this season.
