Hawthorn is in a strong position to reach their first grand final since 2015, having progressively improved through three finals campaigns and showcasing a dominant performance in their qualifying final. A win against Brisbane at this point could signify a shift in power dynamics. However, the Lions are determined to defend their title, aiming to become the third VFL/AFL team in nearly seventy years to achieve a premiership three-peat, following in the footsteps of earlier versions of both clubs.
Impressively, the Hawks ambushed the Dockers on their home ground, securing a week off and a home preliminary final at the MCG. The remarkable victory for Sam Mitchell’s team against the minor premiers surprised many, although it followed a hot streak that now includes just one loss in their last eight matches. The concern lingers, however, as that solitary defeat was a hefty loss to the Lions, whom the Hawks have not defeated in their last three encounters.
The Lions return to familiar territory in their fifth consecutive preliminary final, at the same venue and during the same Saturday twilight time slot as the previous two years when they not only reached the grand finals but also claimed back-to-back premierships. Chris Fagan’s squad is following a similar path to last year’s, having suffered a heavy loss in a qualifying final before rebounding the following week. The Lions have done well to rejuvenate mid-campaign but will need to overcome an improving Hawks side to secure a chance at joining the ranks of the greatest modern teams.
Where the game will be won – and lost
This season, Hawthorn has excelled at limiting opposing teams’ scoring, ranking as the fourth-best team in this aspect. They demonstrated their defensive prowess in their qualifying final against the Dockers, ramping up pressure and implementing a well-structured approach that stifled the minor premiers’ ball movement, conceding just five goals from 57 inside-50 entries. The Hawks lost only two of 20 matches when they held opponents under 100 points this year, though their four defeats came in games where they allowed 120 points or more.
While the Hawks’ defense is crucial for their success, they also possess the offensive capabilities to challenge the Lions. Veteran Jack Gunston (61 goals) remains a key target, complemented by a fleet of agile half-forwards who facilitate play and present their own scoring threats. Nick Watson (57 goals) stands out as arguably the top small forward in the league, while Dylan Moore, Jack Ginnivan, and Connor Macdonald are also capable of scoring and will be essential in pressuring the Lions’ sometimes vulnerable defense.
Brisbane boasts a talented roster of half-forwards who have proven their ability to set the standard, especially evident in their dominant performance against Adelaide. Veteran forward Charlie Cameron (55 goals) leads the charge, while Kai Lohmann (48) has elevated his game significantly. Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner rank among the most impactful players in the front half of the competition and can also contribute in the midfield. The variety of goal-scoring threats, including promising key forward Logan Morris (67), will challenge the Hawks’ defense and the ability of players like James Sicily to create turnovers.
The Lions benefit from a deeper pool of elite talent in the midfield. Will Ashcroft has had a season worthy of a two-time Norm Smith medallist, and the injury-stricken Hugh McCluggage will gain from an additional match under his belt. Josh Dunkley provides essential balance with his defensive skills. Meanwhile, concerns are rising regarding the finals performance of Lachie Neale, who is reportedly considering leaving the club. Nonetheless, the Lions’ midfield has demonstrated a consistent ability to excel in contests and clearances during knockout matches.
Game-changers
Will Day has been a notable addition to the Hawks after a lengthy injury absence, which kept him out late in the 2024 and 2025 seasons. At 25, he has enjoyed a smooth recovery and made a significant impact with a standout performance in the Hawks’ qualifying final, finishing with 24 disposals and eight clearances. His composure and skill add vital balance to the Hawks’ midfield, making him crucial against the Lions, especially with Dunkley expected to play alongside him.
Charlie Cameron, a dynamic presence, faced scrutiny after a disappointing qualifying final performance where he went goalless for only the second time this season. However, he rebounded impressively, scoring five goals in the semi-final, reminding everyone of his big-game capabilities. With 58 finals goals since 2000, he ranks second only to Lance Franklin, highlighting his consistent impact and durability. This week, Cameron will participate in his 30th final, placing him among the top ten in VFL/AFL history, with a fifth grand final within reach.
Early prediction
Having dominated for so long, Brisbane is allowed the occasional lackluster performance, yet their history shows they become nearly unstoppable in high-stakes matches. While Hawthorn is undoubtedly a rising team, they may struggle to contain the reigning champions’ wealth of talent at this stage.
