Fremantle is on the verge of achieving a historic first AFL premiership, needing just one more win. Meanwhile, Brisbane aims to cement their legacy as they face the top team from the home-and-away season in the grand final at the MCG.
The Dockers have already set new records with a remarkable 14-match winning streak and a club-best 19 victories, securing their second minor premiership in their 32-year history. Their early-season dominance established them as the team to beat, but two late-season setbacks hinted at the pressure of history.
Fremantle seemed to falter under pressure during a disappointing home qualifying final against Hawthorn. However, under the guidance of coach Justin Longmuir, they revived their premiership aspirations with thrilling victories against Geelong and Sydney in the preliminary final.
In contrast, Brisbane finds itself back in familiar territory, reaching a fourth consecutive grand final. They have already made history as the first club this century to win five premierships, following three consecutive titles from 2001 to 2003 and back-to-back victories in the past two seasons. The powerhouse formed from the merger of the Brisbane Bears and Fitzroy Lions in 1996 could potentially join Melbourne as the only teams in VFL/AFL history to achieve two three-peats.
Brisbane’s journey mirrors last year’s, characterized by inconsistency throughout the season and a wake-up call in a qualifying final. A devastating loss to an undermanned Sydney team was followed by a commanding performance against the Crows, and then they narrowly edged out the Hawks in one of the most exciting matches to secure their spot in the grand final.
Fremantle has proven that their “Flagmantle” slogan might not just be a fun catchphrase, as they established a commanding lead and held off the reigning premiers in round 12. This final marks the first time these teams face each other, with the Dockers aiming for a fairytale conclusion while the Lions seek to reinforce their status as one of the AFL’s greatest teams.
Where the game will be won – and lost
Fremantle has learned the challenges that come with heightened intensity, managing to win only three quarters across their three finals this year. They capitalized on a strong start against Geelong in the semi-final, fending off various challenges from last year’s runners-up. Their preliminary final performance, which saw them score five goals in the final quarter while limiting the Swans to just one behind, reflects their ability to control games and secure victories.
The Dockers boast the best defense, conceding an average of 74 points this season, and demonstrated their ability to dominate territory during their comeback win against the Swans. They achieved 13-5 in clearances, 51-27 in contested possessions, and 24-6 in inside-50s, showcasing their midfield strength and structured play that kept the pressure on their opponents.
Securing the centre clearance count will be vital against Brisbane, as it will prevent their quick forwards from gaining advantageous positions. The Dockers will also need improved performances from their key forwards, who have contributed significantly to their scoring this season, although Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss, and Patrick Voss have struggled during the finals.
Brisbane has redefined its approach for the latter part of the season, harnessing an impressive array of offensive talent to become a scoring powerhouse. Since overcoming three consecutive mid-season defeats, the Lions have won 12 of their last 14 matches, averaging 118 points per game. The only notable losses during this period were to the Blues and in the final against the Swans, but coach Chris Fagan remains confident in his team’s ability to outscore any opponent. Their forward line, led by Logan Morris, who has scored 69 goals, is complemented by Charlie Cameron, Kai Lohmann, Zac Bailey, and Cam Rayner, all capable of making significant impacts in crucial matches.
The Lions’ scoring often initiates from the centre, as they lead the league in clearance differential at +5.3 per game this season. The Dockers received a stark reminder of the threats posed by Brisbane’s centre clearances when the Lions scored eight goals directly from centre ball-ups against the Hawks. Historically, seven of the past eight premiership teams have outscored their grand final opponents from centre clearances, a statistic that adds pressure to the Dockers. Brisbane’s ability to play a controlled game, utilizing patient kick-mark chains, helps shield a defense that occasionally appears vulnerable, particularly against energetic players like Shai Bolton.
Gamechangers
Luke Jackson: The Dockers’ ruckman continues to showcase his versatility, contributing two goals, 15 disposals, eight score involvements, and 27 hit-outs that were crucial in his team’s comeback against the Swans. The 24-year-old is arguably the most influential player in the game right now, combining remarkable aerial skills with the agility of a midfielder. He has achieved career highs this season with an average of 18.6 disposals, five clearances, and 25.8 hit-outs, along with a personal best of 29 goals. Jackson’s experience from his previous grand final with the Demons could play a pivotal role against the Lions, with only Mason Cox and Bolton as his teammates having grand final experience.
Will Ashcroft: The Lions’ midfielder has been a standout performer, despite missing out on this year’s All-Australian team. At just 22 years old, he has already secured two Norm Smith medals and displayed his poise during the decisive moments against the Hawks. In the final quarter, Ashcroft made three centre clearances, including a crucial play in the last centre ball-up that sealed the game. His clean ball-handling, quick footwork, and ability to find teammates underline his status as one of the best big-game players. Ashcroft’s performance this season, averaging 28.5 disposals and 5.5 clearances, positions him to potentially win a third Norm Smith medal.
Prediction
Fremantle has elevated their game to compete among the top contenders, gaining insights from the two-time reigning premiers on timing their run towards the finals. However, Brisbane possesses the firepower and composure needed to secure a third straight premiership, with Ashcroft potentially achieving a remarkable third Norm Smith medal.
